Predicting The Awards

Boston was shafted last season in awards recognition. The case could be made for David Ortiz and the MVP but a much more serious case was made for Gold Gloves and Boston's Mike Lowell and Alex Gonzalez were totally robbed. 2007 will see some redemption for Boston. NL Rookie of the Year: Kevin Kouzmanoff The NL race is a deep contentious race that could go to the final weekend, but Kouzmanoff will win it by a slim margin. He was aquired in a trade with Cleveland for Josh Barfield. Andy LaRoche and James Loney from the Dodgers, Chris Young and Chris Ianetta from Colorado and Ryan Braun from Milwaukee are others who figure to be in the thick of the race. AL Rookie of the Year: See Below Ok, so I wanna keep you in the dark a little longer, after all I have reference this award in two previous posts. I mentioned that Bill James has projected Dustin Pedroia with ROY calliber stats and normally the fans could begin there Pedroia campaign, but not so fast, he's not even the best rookie in Boston, and possibly not even the second best. Daisuke Matsuzaka in any year would be the odds on favorite to win the ROY, he will be in contention...for second place. Boston also has Hideki Okajima who with a solid relief campaign could see some ROY mention, but does a strong middle relief campaign pass a solid second base year? Time will tell. Others in contention for the AL ROY are Alex Gordon who won Kansas City's third base job, he should have a solid season and will contend with Matsuzaka for second place. I'm sold on Gordon's potential, i'm just not sure he's ready to make a highly sucessful jump from AA to the Majors, but he will have a solid jump. Akinori Imamura will be a sleeper choice from Tampa Bay, while his power in Japan may not translate to the majors, his bat will still open eyes and keep him in the conversation all season. Matt Garza of the Twins joins Matsuzaka as the only pitchers making ROY noise, he will be important for the Twins with Francisco Liriano out for the season but he probably will finish in the middle of the pack. This leads us to our ROY, and if you follow baseball closely you know who it is. Some people are already saying he will have a 30/30 season which is very possible, he could hit well over .300, and he plays for a team that will get significant mention in the press because they will be playing there finest season in franchise history. Delmon Young, may not be the most likable guy, but this Devil Ray will be the 2007 AL ROY, it's his award to lose, not anyone else's to win. NL MVP: Ryan Howard He will follow up 2006 with another monster season and will make a run at 61 which will cause all of baseball to anxiously watch hoping to see a legitimate passing of Roger Maris. AL MVP: David Ortiz The DH thing wont stop Ortiz this year, healthy with more protection in the lineup will help him pass 60 HR this season and even the DH thing can't stop him in 2007. NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter The New Hampshire native already has Toronto wishing they never let him go, Carpenter will have another solid season for the Cardinals and lead the NL in wins and ERA. AL CY Young: Too Close To Call Yes i'm taking the easy road here, there is no clear cut front runner, not even Johan Santana. Among the players who will be in contention are Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Santana, Jonathan Papelbon, Chien-Ming Wang, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay and Jared Weaver. My money is on Beckett. Added Bonus: Mike Lowell will win the 3B Gold Glove and Pedroia will deserve serious discussion for 2B.

Previewing The Bullpen

The bullpen is where the most improvement occured for Boston's pitching staff. The additions of Hideki Okajima, Joel Piniero, J.C. Romero and Brendan Donnelly will help the staff tremendously. Theres not much to really predict with a bullpen. Bill James shows they will be a decent staff while PECOTA says they will be about where they were last year. No one has bullpen numbers on Jonathan Papelbon because he wasn't expected to close. My predictions are: Bullpen: Solid season with a sub 4.00 era as a group. Papelbon: 3-1 with a 1.12 era and 45 saves.

Previewing The Rotation

Pitching Wins Championships! We always had a crappy defense, usually a crappy pitching staff and generally always had a decent to deep offense. A few years back we upgraded our defense at mid season, but it still wasn't great like last years was. We had the usual deadly offense and we had something unaccustomed to Sox fans, a deep pitching staff. In the end we ended up as World Champions for the first time in 86 years and what do they do... rebuild around a defense. That ship has sailed and the defense has been downgraded to build back up the offense. The 2007 defense wont be as good as last season, but it wont be as bad as some we have seen at Fenway, were looking at a middle-of-the-pack defense this season. We will have a much improved offense perhaps even better then 2003-04. And the major improvement will be the pitching staff. Not much has changed in the rotation this year, one big name was added in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Another is coming off a transition year from the NL to the AL while another is in an always productive contract year. Meet your 2007 Boston Red Sox starting pitchers: Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Julian Tavarez and Jon Lester. Also sitting around in the bullpen and the minors waiting to step in if needed are Kyle Snyder, Devern Hansack, Kason Gabbard, David Pauley and Joel Piniero and waiting at home Roger Clemens. The rotation just 10 days ago looked even deadlier with Jonathan Papelbon in it, but he has since been sent back to the closer role. So how will the starters do this season? Well Bill James and PECOTA have some mixed results. First Bill James projections are; Curt Schilling: 12-8 with a 3.50 era and 5.9 k/bb ratio. Josh Beckett: 13-10 with a 3.68 era and 2.55 k/bb ratio. *Daisuke Matsuzaka: 15-10 with a 3.55 era Tim Wakefield: 8-8 with a 4.14 era and 1.96 k/bb ratio. Jon Lester: 4-5 with a 1.80 k/bb ratio. ^Julian Tavarez: 4.56 era with a 1.39 k/bb ratio. * Matsuzaka signed after the James Handbook was released and his predictions are an average of many predictions courtesy of YF vs SF. ^ Tavarez was slated as a reliever when the handbook was released and wasn't projected with a W-L record. PECOTA projections are; Schilling: 13-9 with a 4.02 era and 4.24 k/bb ratio. Beckett: 11-10 with a 4.47 era and 2.27 k/bb ratio. Matsuzaka: 12-9 with a 4.01 era and 3.18 k/bb ratio. Wakefield: 9-9 with a 4.77 era and 1.69 k/bb ratio. Lester: 6-7 with a 5.20 era and 1.64 k/bb ratio. Tavarez: 5.05 era and 1.72 k/bb ratio. And finally my possibly over kill predictions, but that's better then these ridiculous projections above. Schilling: 16-9 with a 3.65 era Beckett: 21-7 with a 3.25 era Matsuzaka: 17-8 with a 2.45 era Wakefield: 13-9 with a 4.45 era Lester: 10-5 with a 4.50 era Tavarez: 7-9 with a 4.89 era

Offensive Prediction

Based on Bill James projections the Red Sox will hit 230 HR this includes Pena, Hinske, Cora and Mirabelli who are not opening day starters. This of course doesnt take into account anyone who may play for Boston later in the season or any Josh Beckett may hit in NL parks this season. PECOTA says Boston will hit 166, this doesnt include the non starters listed above. My predictions call for an eye popping 294 HR which would be astonishing. It also calls for Boston to score in the neighborhood of 1100 runs in 2007. Yes I know, my predictions maybe a little high, but i expect BIG things from this offense and unlike most people, I have MUCH faith in Dustin Pedroia and would normally list him among the favorites for ROY if not for one name that basically has that award won already barring a complete collapse, as I said before stay tuned for that explanation.

Previewing Right Field

How weird and sad it will be to see not only someone other then Trot Nixon in right field this season, but that someone wearing Trot's #7, a slap in the face to Nixon fans around Red Sox Nation. The original Dirt Dog was not offered a contract and has moved onto Cleveland. Boston signed J.D. Drew to replace him and that gives Boston a significant upgrade in offensive production. Drew will be the everyday player in right and will see some time off with Wily Mo Pena and Eric Hinske getting some innings out there, both Pena and Hinske are mentioned elsewhere in the previews. Drew gets more respect from Bill James then from PECOTA. James projects a .283/.398/.493 season with 24 HR, 82 RBI and 27 doubles. PECOTA shows a .285/.392/.476 projection with 15 HR, 61 RBI and 27 doubles. I expect more from Drew and expect him to have a healthy season. My predictions are; Drew: .315 with 32 HR, 112 RBI and 32 doubles.

Previewing Center Field

The outfield is a deep position for Boston this season. Last year injuries around the outfield caused many problems for Boston with every outfielder on the opening day roster missing significant time at some point in the season. This year health highlights the depth along with a new right fielder who will show some significat power in the lineup. For the purpose of our previews center field will consist of Coco Crisp and Wily Mo Pena. Pena will serve as a backup across the outfield seeing significat playing time and should Crisp struggle extensively Pena gives Boston a great full time replacement. Bill James has some decent projections for these two players starting with Crisp. James has Crisp projected for a .284/.337/.419 season with 11 HR, 54 RBI, 30 doubles and 23 steals. Pena's projections are eye popping for a backup, they are, .277 average with 23 HR, 68 RBI and 57 runs. James projects Pena to strikout 127 times. As for PECOTA, I only have Crisp numbers and they are, .310/.361/.452 with 13 HR, 63 RBI, 27 doubles and 21 steals. My predictions are; Crisp: .285 with 11 HR, 58 RBI, 28 doubles and 34 steals. Pena: .299 with 28 HR, 79 RBI and 22 doubles.

Previewing Left Field

Man how I wish Manny upcoming season would compare to the season he's having for me on MLB 2007 The Show. Through July 31 he has smacked 42 homers and leads second place David Ortiz by 16. He's also batting a cool .398 with 88 RBI. But onto reality we go. Manny is always likely to have huge seasons and 2007 will be no different. Bill James projects Manny to put up .305/.414/.590 numbers with 37 HR, 118 RBI, 33 doubles and 90 walks. PECOTA shows numbers a little lower, .297/.400/.567 with 33 HR, 105 RBI, 32 doubles and 84 walks. Its likely Manny will eclipse these numbers in 2007 with a solid threat in the lineup behind him. My predictions for Manny in 2007 reflect my feelings about a solid hitter behind him; Ramirez: .345 with 45 HR, 137 RBI, 42 doubles

Opening Day Roster Set

The Boston Red Sox have set there opening day roster by informing Kyle Snyder and Javy Lopez they have both made the 25-man roster. Both will serve in the bullpen until Mike Timlin is activated from the DL. Craig Hansen was sent to Pawtucket this morning and Manny Delcarmen was informed he didn't make the 25-man roster. Alex Ochoa also accepted a minor league assignment from Boston. Delcarmen could still find himself on the opening day roster if Boston can find a trade partner for Joel Piniero who's value to the team is very low now that Jonathan Papelbon was moved back to closer. With Jon Lester, Devern Hansack and Kason Gabbard in Pawtucket he has no value as a starter with the Sox.

Previewing Third Base

Mike Lowell returns for his second and likely last season in Boston. Lowell performed well above expectations last season after his very poor 2005 season. Lowell is projected by Bill James for another solid season in Fenway putting up .273/.341/.452 numbers with 18 HR, 77 RBI and 36 doubles. Corner infield backup Eric Hinske who will also see time around the outfield is projected for a .257 average with 10 HR, 38 RBI and 43 runs according to Bill James. PECOTA has very similar numbers for Lowell, .273/.333/.441 with 15 HR, 74 RBI and 33 doubles. My predictions for these two players are a bit above Bill James and PECOTA. Lowell: .285 with 24 HR, 42 doubles and 88 RBI. Hinske: .280 with 13 HR, 21 doubles and 55 RBI.

Previewing Shortstop

This is all about Julio Lugo. While he won't play every inning of 2007 at shortstop, you can find his backups predictions listed under second base. Julio Lugo becomes the fourth shortstop in four seasons for Boston and while his contract would suggest he's here for the next four years, we did think the same about Edgar Renteria in 2005. Lugo will give Boston a leadoff hitter it lacked last season after the departure of Johnny Damon and while Kevin Youkilis played well from the spot, he just wasn't the type of player you need there. Bill James predicts Lugo for a .277/.343/.399 season with 11 HR, 85 runs and 26 stolen bases. PECOTA predicts a .284/.347/.406 season with 8 HR, 29 doubles, 19 steals and 74 runs. My predictions for Lugo are; Lugo: .296 with 13 HR, 35 doubles, 85 runs and 31 steals.

Previewing Second Base

The future of second base in Boston finally arrives as a full time player. Dustin Pedroia who struggled in a late season callup last fall is prepared to take over for a number of short term fixes that stretch back to the early to mid 90's. With Pedroia Boston has a long term player to fill the position. Because of the uncertainty in Pedroia being a rookie, Boston resigned Alex Cora for 2-years and $2 million per, Cora will fill in as a middle infielder to supplement Pedroia and Julio Lugo when they needs days off. Its hard to predict this position because of lack of significant playing time the two have had in the majors of late, but here goes. According to Bill James, Pedroia could have a very solid rookie campaign. James predicts a .284/.358/.418 season with 10 HR, 72 RBI, 47 doubles, 67 walks and just 43 strikeouts. Normally you could use that to begin your Pedroia for Rookie of the Year campaign but we will discuss in a later post why that would be a waste of your time. PECOTA has somewhat similar numbers for Pedroia with .274/.360/.431 with 9 HR, 60 RBI, 36 doubles and just 47 strikeouts. My predictions for this duo are similar to whats above. Pedroia: .285 with 12 HR, 70 RBI, 43 doubles, 75 walks and 41 strikeouts. Cora: .265 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 6 doubles UPDATE: I have just come across the Bill James projections for Alex Cora, he is as follows, .243 average with 3 HR, 26 RBI and 32 runs.

Previewing First Base

For the purpose of grouping players David Ortiz will be listed here for his preview. Last season While Ortiz smashed his way to a Red Sox record, Kevin Youkilis performed solidly in his first full season in the majors, and while Youkilis will likely improve Ortiz could possibly slip. Ortiz set a franchise record with 54 HR last season and most project him to take a significat step back on the power numbers this season. Bill James projects Ortiz at .285/.391/.592 with 47 HR and 138 RBI. He's also projected for 42 doubles and 103 walks. PECOTA has a much bigger decline for Big Papi to the tune of .289/.406/.577 with 41 HR, 130 RBI, 37 doubles and 109 walks. For Youkilis Bill James has .283/.395/.433 with 14 HR, 165 hits and 101 runs. PECOTA has .271/.376/.456 with 18 HR and 90 run scored. My predictions for them are; Ortiz: .301 with 63 HR, 32 doubles, 123 walks and 150 RBI Youkilis: .325 with 21 HR, 44 doubles and 107 runs

Previewing The Catchers

What was once a solid offensive slot for Boston took a significant step back in 2006 with Jason Varitek struggling through injuries and using several backstops during the season. The loss of the bat of Josh Bard could hurt the team in the future, but George Kottaras could be a decent offensive player in a couple seasons. Once again we enter the season with a duo of Varitek and Doug Mirabelli who needs to have a solid season this year after the level of play the two players Boston lost last season for him have produced extremely well for San Diego. I only have projected stats for likely starters this season so that means I have no numbers on how Mirabelli might do. For Varitek Bill James projects him to a .259/.343/.434 line with 17 HR and 69 RBI, those all would be improvements over 2006. PECOTA proejects Varitek like this .274/.357/.453 with 14 HR and 55 RBI My predictions for Tek and Mirabelli are. Varitek: .274 with 21 HR and 78 RBI Mirabelli: .243 with 9 HR and 33 RBI That gives us 30 HR and 111 RBI from the catching position, not to shabby. Kotteras sits in Pawtuckett ready if needed to give us better depth then last season.

Updates

Sorry about the schedule for previews being destroyed. I broke my glasses and was without them for a week. I can see once again and here we go catching up. I wont be doing the rest of the recaps from the 2006 season for the Sox and the minor league teams, though I may revist that in the early weeks of the season. Now lets get to what matters the previews of the 2007 season.

Red Sox Rule Gulf Coast League

2006 was the year of the Red Sox in the Gulf Coast League as the single A squad of the Boston Red Sox won the championship over the Dodgers. Jonathan Egan and Michael Jones led the offense while Jose Cappellan and Jorge Rodriguez led the pitching staff. The Red Sox dominated the championship series allowing just five runs in the 3-game series, while scoring 16 including a domianting 11-2 decisive game 3.

Daily Preview Schedule

I will post previews daily beggining March 11 that will cover recaps from last season at each level to positional previews and a prediction on each MLB division. Here is the schedule: March 11: 2006 Recap of the Rookie Gulf Coast Champion Red Sox Season March 12: 2006 A Red Sox recap March 13: 2006 AA Eastern League Champion Portland SeaDogs recap March 14: 2006 AAA Red Sox recap March 15: 2006 Boston Red Sox recap March 16: Position Preview for catchers March 17: Position Preview for first base March 18: Position Preview for second base March 19: Position Preview for shortstop March 20: Position Preview for third base March 21: Position Preview for leftfield March 22: Position Preview for centerfield March 23: Position Preview for rightfield March 24: Position Preview for starting pitchers March 25: Position Preview for relief pitchers March 26: Awards Predictions March 27: NL West Preview March 28: AL West Preview March 29: NL Central Preview March 30: AL Central Preview March 31: NL East Preview April 1: AL East Preview April 2: Playoff Predictions.......PLAY BALL!