A Sweep That Wasn't

The Boston Red Sox should be sitting in their clubhouse this morning with a six game cushion in the American League East race, and they would be had it not been for Eric Gagne.

Instead this morning Boston sits with just a four game lead with a bit over 40 games remaining on the season. Four games while appearing to be small is still rather big considering the remaining schedules for both Boston and New York.

Boston has 45 games remaining against 8 opponents. The combined winning percent of those opponents is .494.

New York has 45 games remaining against 8 opponents. The combined winning percent of those opponents is .514.

Comparing Remaining Schedules
Lets take a look at what remains. For Boston its Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Baltimore, Toronto, Oakland and Minnesota. For New York its Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles, Boston, Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle and Tampa Bay.

Lets play pick the winners shall we?

This is a whats likely results in my opinion...

Boston
vs Tampa Bay (12 games remain) Boston wins 8-4
vs Los Angeles (4) Boston splits 2-2
vs Chicago (4) Boston wins 3-1
vs New York (6) Boston splits 3-3
vs Baltimore (7) Boston wins 5-2
vs Toronto (6) Boston wins 4-2
vs Oakland (2) Boston splits 1-1
vs Minnesota (4) Boston splits 2-2

This puts Boston at 98-64 on the season.

New York
vs Baltimore (9) Baltimore wins 4-5
vs Detroit (8) New York splits 4-4
vs Los Angeles (3) New York wins 2-1
vs Boston (6) New York splits 3-3
vs Toronto (7) New York wins 4-3
vs Kansas City (3) New York wins 2-1
vs Seattle (3) New York wins 2-1
vs Tampa Bay (6) New York wins 4-2

This puts New York at 91-71, 7 games behind Boston.

When picking winners I took into account previous matchups this season between the teams except New York vs Detroit as they haven't played yet this year. For New York the Seattle, Detroit and Los Angeles picks were generous, New York could easily go 5-9 in that stretch as opposed to the 8-6 I picked them for.

I'm not saying this will follow through exactly, the main point here is that Red Sox fans need to stop panicking, things aren't as bad as many set them up to be.