Previewing Third Base

Mike Lowell returns for his second and likely last season in Boston. Lowell performed well above expectations last season after his very poor 2005 season. Lowell is projected by Bill James for another solid season in Fenway putting up .273/.341/.452 numbers with 18 HR, 77 RBI and 36 doubles. Corner infield backup Eric Hinske who will also see time around the outfield is projected for a .257 average with 10 HR, 38 RBI and 43 runs according to Bill James. PECOTA has very similar numbers for Lowell, .273/.333/.441 with 15 HR, 74 RBI and 33 doubles. My predictions for these two players are a bit above Bill James and PECOTA. Lowell: .285 with 24 HR, 42 doubles and 88 RBI. Hinske: .280 with 13 HR, 21 doubles and 55 RBI.

Previewing Shortstop

This is all about Julio Lugo. While he won't play every inning of 2007 at shortstop, you can find his backups predictions listed under second base. Julio Lugo becomes the fourth shortstop in four seasons for Boston and while his contract would suggest he's here for the next four years, we did think the same about Edgar Renteria in 2005. Lugo will give Boston a leadoff hitter it lacked last season after the departure of Johnny Damon and while Kevin Youkilis played well from the spot, he just wasn't the type of player you need there. Bill James predicts Lugo for a .277/.343/.399 season with 11 HR, 85 runs and 26 stolen bases. PECOTA predicts a .284/.347/.406 season with 8 HR, 29 doubles, 19 steals and 74 runs. My predictions for Lugo are; Lugo: .296 with 13 HR, 35 doubles, 85 runs and 31 steals.

Previewing Second Base

The future of second base in Boston finally arrives as a full time player. Dustin Pedroia who struggled in a late season callup last fall is prepared to take over for a number of short term fixes that stretch back to the early to mid 90's. With Pedroia Boston has a long term player to fill the position. Because of the uncertainty in Pedroia being a rookie, Boston resigned Alex Cora for 2-years and $2 million per, Cora will fill in as a middle infielder to supplement Pedroia and Julio Lugo when they needs days off. Its hard to predict this position because of lack of significant playing time the two have had in the majors of late, but here goes. According to Bill James, Pedroia could have a very solid rookie campaign. James predicts a .284/.358/.418 season with 10 HR, 72 RBI, 47 doubles, 67 walks and just 43 strikeouts. Normally you could use that to begin your Pedroia for Rookie of the Year campaign but we will discuss in a later post why that would be a waste of your time. PECOTA has somewhat similar numbers for Pedroia with .274/.360/.431 with 9 HR, 60 RBI, 36 doubles and just 47 strikeouts. My predictions for this duo are similar to whats above. Pedroia: .285 with 12 HR, 70 RBI, 43 doubles, 75 walks and 41 strikeouts. Cora: .265 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 6 doubles UPDATE: I have just come across the Bill James projections for Alex Cora, he is as follows, .243 average with 3 HR, 26 RBI and 32 runs.

Previewing First Base

For the purpose of grouping players David Ortiz will be listed here for his preview. Last season While Ortiz smashed his way to a Red Sox record, Kevin Youkilis performed solidly in his first full season in the majors, and while Youkilis will likely improve Ortiz could possibly slip. Ortiz set a franchise record with 54 HR last season and most project him to take a significat step back on the power numbers this season. Bill James projects Ortiz at .285/.391/.592 with 47 HR and 138 RBI. He's also projected for 42 doubles and 103 walks. PECOTA has a much bigger decline for Big Papi to the tune of .289/.406/.577 with 41 HR, 130 RBI, 37 doubles and 109 walks. For Youkilis Bill James has .283/.395/.433 with 14 HR, 165 hits and 101 runs. PECOTA has .271/.376/.456 with 18 HR and 90 run scored. My predictions for them are; Ortiz: .301 with 63 HR, 32 doubles, 123 walks and 150 RBI Youkilis: .325 with 21 HR, 44 doubles and 107 runs

Previewing The Catchers

What was once a solid offensive slot for Boston took a significant step back in 2006 with Jason Varitek struggling through injuries and using several backstops during the season. The loss of the bat of Josh Bard could hurt the team in the future, but George Kottaras could be a decent offensive player in a couple seasons. Once again we enter the season with a duo of Varitek and Doug Mirabelli who needs to have a solid season this year after the level of play the two players Boston lost last season for him have produced extremely well for San Diego. I only have projected stats for likely starters this season so that means I have no numbers on how Mirabelli might do. For Varitek Bill James projects him to a .259/.343/.434 line with 17 HR and 69 RBI, those all would be improvements over 2006. PECOTA proejects Varitek like this .274/.357/.453 with 14 HR and 55 RBI My predictions for Tek and Mirabelli are. Varitek: .274 with 21 HR and 78 RBI Mirabelli: .243 with 9 HR and 33 RBI That gives us 30 HR and 111 RBI from the catching position, not to shabby. Kotteras sits in Pawtuckett ready if needed to give us better depth then last season.

Updates

Sorry about the schedule for previews being destroyed. I broke my glasses and was without them for a week. I can see once again and here we go catching up. I wont be doing the rest of the recaps from the 2006 season for the Sox and the minor league teams, though I may revist that in the early weeks of the season. Now lets get to what matters the previews of the 2007 season.

Red Sox Rule Gulf Coast League

2006 was the year of the Red Sox in the Gulf Coast League as the single A squad of the Boston Red Sox won the championship over the Dodgers. Jonathan Egan and Michael Jones led the offense while Jose Cappellan and Jorge Rodriguez led the pitching staff. The Red Sox dominated the championship series allowing just five runs in the 3-game series, while scoring 16 including a domianting 11-2 decisive game 3.

Daily Preview Schedule

I will post previews daily beggining March 11 that will cover recaps from last season at each level to positional previews and a prediction on each MLB division. Here is the schedule: March 11: 2006 Recap of the Rookie Gulf Coast Champion Red Sox Season March 12: 2006 A Red Sox recap March 13: 2006 AA Eastern League Champion Portland SeaDogs recap March 14: 2006 AAA Red Sox recap March 15: 2006 Boston Red Sox recap March 16: Position Preview for catchers March 17: Position Preview for first base March 18: Position Preview for second base March 19: Position Preview for shortstop March 20: Position Preview for third base March 21: Position Preview for leftfield March 22: Position Preview for centerfield March 23: Position Preview for rightfield March 24: Position Preview for starting pitchers March 25: Position Preview for relief pitchers March 26: Awards Predictions March 27: NL West Preview March 28: AL West Preview March 29: NL Central Preview March 30: AL Central Preview March 31: NL East Preview April 1: AL East Preview April 2: Playoff Predictions.......PLAY BALL!

Wrapping Up The Day

Pena and Sox Agree Boston came to terms with Wily Mo Pena on a deal just prior to the arbitration hearing keeping intact Theo's run of never having gone before the arbitrator in his tenure. Pena will make $1.875 million in 2007, that's $150,000 more then Boston's initial offer and $325,000 less then Pena was seeking. John Farrell's Closer Indications According to the new pitching coach the close will likely be one of the four listed here, Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, Julian Tavarez and Mike Timlin. Unless Pineiro struggles mightily, you gotta figure hes the man, his contract value is closer money, not middle relief mop up money. And For Those Who Root For The Patriots New England slapped the Franchise tag on Asante Samuel tonight.

And So It Begins...

Well it has finally arrived and with the day for catchers and pitchers to report comes daily updates here on the blog. Its been busy so theres lots to cover. Matsuzaka Arrives Daisuke Matsuzaka has been in Fort Myers for a few days now and has already had a press conference with more attention then any before it in Red Sox nation. It was broadcast live on 4 different networks at 7:30am in Japan as 150 reporters from Japan, Boston, New York, Florida and other cities covered it. It was so huge they set a backdrop and table atop the dugout to accomadate the large media crowd. In the press conference Matsuzaka joked about working on a knuckleball, but said it didnt go to well. He also talked about his first pitch he will throw, saying he would like to throw a fastball and then added with a smile "I would like my first batter, if he is listening, please try not to hit the ball". He has also expressed interest in playing catch with Tim Wakefield saying, "I would love to catch his knuckleballs." Perhaps if he handles it well, he can be Wakefield's personal catcher and add to his value. Keith Foulke Retires While this don't have any ramifications for the Red Sox, I thought I would include it. This morning Foulke informed manager Eric Wedge that he is retiring. He had just arrived at camp this morning. The Indians were counting on him to be the closer this season. Wily Mo Pena Heads To Arbitration There has been no movement in negotiations with Pena and he appears to be the first "Theo Era" arbitration hearing. Hes asking for $2.2 million while Boston offered $1.725 million. I'll have more later today.